Projected Drought Conditions over Southern Slope of the Central Himalaya Using CMIP6 Models

Abstract Nepal is located on the southern slope of Central Himalayas and has experienced frequent droughts in past. In this study, we used an ensemble 13 biased corrected models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess future drought conditions over under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at annual timescale. The monthly correlation between observed CMIP6-simulated historical SPEI 0.23 ( p < 0.01), which indicates CMIP6 model can simulate characteristics Nepal. period (2020–2100), duration severity are projected increase with higher emission scenarios, especially for SSP585. Our results indicate enhanced intensity SSP126, whereas, frequency will be slightly higher. early (2020–2060), decreasing late (2061–2100) all SSP scenarios. further more prolonged severe SSP585 as compared SSP126 SSP245. findings present study help mitigation well long-term adaptation strategies